Ultimate Team Probabilities in EA SPORTS FC™

EA SPORTS FC™ Football Ultimate Team displays probabilities*, which details the likelihood of what you will get in every pack and player pick (collectively referred to as packs) that you get with FC Points. We believe that providing you with this information will help you make decisions on where you want to invest your FC Points, Football Ultimate Team Coins, and time in order to build your best squad. 

On the EA SPORTS FC™ Football Ultimate Team Store screen, you’ll see an option under every pack available for FC Points that reads “Show Pack Probabilities.” Because there are thousands of items in Football Ultimate Team, they are categorized by Player Item type and OVR range, or Club Item type. Player Items are the in-game representations of football players. Club Items, such as kits and other vanity, manager items, and consumables allow you to enhance, maintain, and personalize your club.

The percentages that you see are the minimum probability of getting one or more items in the ratings range and category listed. For example, if a category and rating have a 100% probability, you’re guaranteed to receive at least one item meeting that category description. Remember that a single item can fit within multiple categories.

For example, a Large Gold Pack in Football Ultimate Team may display percentages as:

Note: these probabilities are for example only and may not be the same as in the final product.

Packs that may contain Club Items display the probability for those items under a separate “Club Items” heading.

Pack probabilities are calculated by simulating the opening of a very large number of packs for each pack type in the Store. The number of packs opened in a simulation varies based on rarity, but it will always be enough to be statistically valid. We then re-run this process with every content update.

Specific pack content is randomly selected from large groups of available items. The probability of receiving any particular item within the stated range or type may vary. Because of the large number of available items, the probability of receiving a particular individual item is significantly less than the displayed probability for the OVR or special category range, and is often less than 1%.

Any probability percentages that you see are on a pack-by-pack basis and are not cumulative. That means that each pack opening is an independent event; opening multiple packs does not change the likelihood of being awarded an item from a specific category. If you flip a coin three times and get heads each time, you still have a 50% chance of getting heads if you flip the coin again. 

A pack will always contain one or more items of the minimum guaranteed quality or rating in the description and pack probability. Packs that include probabilities for Gold Player Items may occasionally grant active Team of the Week, Hero, Icon, or Campaign Player Items. 

Further, in EA SPORTS FC™ 27 each randomly awarded Player Item, other than Bronze, Silver, and Gold Player Items, has an approximate 5% chance of being a Holographic Variant. Items awarded on a guaranteed basis are not eligible. Eligible Items rated 87 OVR or lower have Regular Holographic Variants; those rated 88 OVR or higher have Pristine Holographic Variants. Holographic Variants do not change an Item's OVR or gameplay attributes, however non-gameplay attributes such as quicksell value or Gallery Score may differ from the base item. **  

Live content and new items are added to Football Ultimate Team for the current title on a regular basis, which could change the probability numbers throughout the season. Probabilities are accurate as of the timestamp indicated at the bottom of that screen.

EA SPORTS FC™ Football Ultimate Team is a live service that we are always looking to improve. This means being open to player feedback at all times. We know all the effort you put into building up your squad, and we want that time to be as rewarding and fun as possible.

*Pack probabilities are displayed from EA SPORTS FC™ 24 onwards. Probabilities for Club Items are displayed from EA SPORTS FC™ 25 onwards.

EA SPORTS FC™ FOOTBALL ULTIMATE TEAM REQUIRES THE RELEVANT EA SPORTS FC PRODUCT, ALL GAME UPDATES, INTERNET CONNECTION AND EA ACCOUNT.

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